Housing Situation

Headed for a Crash?

This is making me more than a little nervous:

Housing sales in July plunged to their lowest level in more than a decade, exceeding even the grimmest forecasts.


The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 3.83 million was 25.5 percent below the level of July a year ago.

The July sales were down 27.2 percent from June.

It was the lowest rate for existing-home sales since 1999. For sales of single-family homes, it was the lowest since 1995.

Analysts expected a decline because July was the first month in which buyers could not take advantage of a tax credit. That helped prop up the market last winter. But most had predicted a decline of only about 13 percent.

I don't want to buy now if the house market is just going to completely crash again.

Critters

Crazy or Brave?

It's all fun and games until the zoologoist loses a limb.

Housing Situation

Using Your Home as Piggy Bank? Not So Much Anymore

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, estimates that it will take 20 years to recoup the $6 trillion of housing wealth that has been lost since 2005. After adjusting for inflation, values will never catch up.


"People shouldn't look at a home as a way to make money because it won't," Mr. Baker said.

If the long term is grim, the short term is grimmer. Housing experts are bracing themselves for Tuesday, when the sales figures for July will be released. The data is expected to show a drop of as much as 20 percent from last year.

The supply of homes sitting on the market might rise to as much as 12 months, about twice the level of a healthy market. That would push down prices as all those sellers compete to secure a buyer, adding to a slide that has already chopped off as much as 30 percent in home values.

Doesn't exactly inspire confidence and make me want to rush out and buy a home. On the one hand, I want to move. I need to be in a bigger place in a better neighborhood. On the other hand, why should I dump my savings into a sinking ship. I need a place to live so I'm either going to pay rent or pay a mortgage, but my rent is reasonable and housing prices have not come down so much in the Bay Area—at least the desireable parts of the Bay Area—to create any kind of parity in the market between buying and leasing, not like it has in, say, Phoenix:

Cycling

Holstein 100

Looking like it's going to be a long day in the saddle on Saturday. If I can get through it, should be a beautiful ride.

Tech Stuff

Bold Move

Picked up a used/new (used phone-new to me) Blackberry Bold last weekend. I had been a long suffering user of a crappy Curve with it's miserable camera and wonky A key that looked like it had been chewed up by a meth addict gone bezerk. That one I had picked up on Craigslist when the phone I had died&mash;the SIM card holder imploded and was deemed to be totaled.

For reasons best not explained, I'm not eligible for an upgrade so it came down to two options: (1) Buy a new phone for around 500 bucks or (2) Buy a used phone. I went with the latter and after much searching found this women selling a used Bold for $110.

It wasn't in perfect condtion. A few scratches here and there, but it was all cosmetic stuff. The new phone is just leaps and bounds better than the old heap. Here's some of what it's got:

(1) Larger, clearer and higher-res screen. It's beautiful.
(2) 3.2 Megapixel camera. It's capable of producing relatively sharp 1600 x 1200 images. It's never going to replace a real camera, but compared to the Curve, it's a Leica. Here's a sample from the weekend:
Bay Bridge

(3) Real browser. The Curve only had a text-based browser. You could enable javascript and CSS, but the performance was bad, it wasn't even worth it. The Bold isn't exactly an iPohone and doesn't run Safari, but the BB browser does a decent enough job and it looks fantastic
(4) 3G and wireless. Bold's got them. Curve does not.
(5) More memory. My Curve was hamstrung when the messages built up or I tried to install a new app. No problems as of yet with the Bold. I have dozens of apps installed now.
(6) Sleek silver/black front with a black leather back. Looks really nice.

Overall, I'm thrilled. I would have prefered a new one, of course, but paying about 20% of the new price makes putting up some issues of used phone not even worth thinking about.


Cycling

OYJ Fog City 2010

Twin Peaks Fog

A very foggy day in the city (until the end when we had a nice lunch at the Ferry Building). A brave crew of about 8 of us tackled Fillmore. It was a lot of fun. Sort of a slow ride, but enjoyable nonetheless.

Miles 38.66 mi
Ride Time 3:03:36
MPH 12.6 mph
Max Speed 42.4 mph
Elevation Gain 2,984 ft
Flats 0

More stuff here:

Here's the route map:

Poetry

Bukowski Was Right

Charles Bukowski

Happy Birthday, Chuck! Talk about going postal:

The nine-to-five is one of the greatest atrocities sprung upon mankind. You give your life away to a function that doesn't interest you. This situation so repelled me that I was driven to drink, starvation, and mad females, simply as an alternative.

If you haven't read Post Office, you really, really should.

Cycling

OYJ Three Bears & Some Redwoods

Tunnel Road Fog

Leading the Humane group with Fred. Started as a stupidly foggy day. Moist weather casued lots of flats going up Tunnel. I was lucky and avoided any trouble. The skies broke when we hit Contra Costa County and we had a really nice ride up and over the Three Bears.

I convinced the small group I was riding with to stop at the Espresso Roma Cafe in Berzerkly for a quick lunch on the cyclist-friendly terrace.

Miles 48.54 mi
Ride Time 3:51:27
MPH 12.8 mph
Max Speed 43.9 mph
Elevation Gain 4,142 ft
Flats 0

More stuff here:

Here's the route map:



Cycling

Litte 4-0 Ride

Not over the hill yet

A fun little ride with some cycling friends to celebrate my 40th birthday. Someone put up a couple of signs, one in Piedmont (above) and another on Tunnel Road. I have no idea who did it, but it was very touching.

Happy Birthday Andrew!

Miles 25.10 mi
Ride Time 2:04:22
MPH 12.1 mph
Max Speed 39.4 mph
Elevation Gain 2,380 ft
Flats 0

More stuff here:

Here's the route map:

Food

Beautiful Sushi

Chef Special IMG_0912

More pics in the Ozumo set on Flickr.

What Am I Doing

Twitter

The Vitals

About

This is the blog of Andrew Hecht, web guy, photographer, traveler, cyclist, and cat owner.

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