"It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign. If one assumes minority turnout exceeds their 2000 election levels, then it appears a number of these states would tip to Sen. Kerry."
This comes directly from a report entitled, It Can't Get Any Closer in the Battleground States Minority Turnout is Kerry Key, from Republican polling firm Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc. The report concludes that when the data is weighted to reflect minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5% and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen. Kerry's lead expands to 5.2%.
So there should be no doubt as to why the GOP is engaged in a concerted effort to challenge minority voters in battleground states. It's the only way they can win.
"It's the only way they can win."
Well, there's another way, as suggested by the Onion:
"Republicans Urge Minorities To Get Out And Vote On Nov. 3"
http://www.theonion.com/news/index.php?issue=4043&n=1
Karl Rove has to be pissed he didn't think of that first.