Finally, the 2-year long perma-campaign is over and we're on the eve of election day (for those of us who haven't already voted. Things are looking pretty good for the blue side, if you can believe the polls. Here's how I think it will play out:
President
Obama 346
McCain 192
I get to this number assuming Obama will win all the states Kerry carried in 2004 plus Colorado, Florida, Iowa , New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The wildcards are states like Georgia, North Dakota, Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri which could flip on massive Democratic turnout.
I'll be looking closely at Minnesota where Al Franken has a small lead in the latest polls but is well under 50% because of the 3rd party candidate polling around 15%. If Franken can oust the odious Norm Coleman (who replaced Democratic hero Paul Wellstone), it will be fantastic.
Senate
Democrats +7
I see the Democrats picking up seats in Alaska, Oregon, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and North Carolina while losing none. The races in Kentucky, Georgia and Mississippi should go to the Republican incumbents, but the same turnout rules apply. The races are closer than they should be and depending on the length of Obama's coat tails, it could be an interesting night. My hope is that whatever happens, the Democrats have the balls to kick Lieberman out of the caucus. The guy is a nebish. He and Republicans deserve each other.
House
Democrats +25
This is harder to call. I don't pay that much attention to the House. You really have to be a political wonk and I'm not that bad, so I'll go with what I hear the experts are saying and kind of split the difference. It's clear that Dems will pick up seats. The question is how many. My real hope is that some of the more hateful reps like Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado and Michele Bachmann in Minnesota lose their seats for a bit of election night schadenfreude.
There are some interesting ballot measure this year, topping the list is Proposition 8 here in California. The Mormons have poured money into the campaign on the Yes side which will end same-sex marriage. I'm voting yes because, well, I'm not a bigot, and if gay people want to get married and be as miserable as straight married folks, let them at it. The paranoia on the right regarding this issue is really breathtaking. I don't really understand it. It's like gay people are all of sudden going to come into the bedrooms and bust up their marriages. It's silly nonsense. The only thing that's going to happen is that gay marriage industry will employ lots of florists, designers and wedding planners, which will be good for our troubled economy. I'm not really a believer in marriage on principle, but if anyone feels the need to have an institutional stamp of approval on their relationship, I don't have a problem with that either. It really shouldn't be that complicated.
So I'm hopeful for tomorrow night that this country can put the last 8 disastrous years behind us and show the world that we're not a bigoted country and that we're ready to move forward.
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