Back in October, before the 2004 election, I wrote about what I thought was the most important issues of the campaign, one that was being ignored, one which should have had more prominence. Here what I wrote:

We've got a serious problem coming up in the next 4 years. Many members of our aging Supreme Court could retire. Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, 80, has more than hinted at his desire to leave jurisprudence prudence behind and hit links. Justice Stevens is 84. O'Connor is 74. Ginsberg, a cancer survivor, is 71. All but one, Clarence Thomas is over 65.

Now George W Bush has already said that his nominees to the court will be in the mould of Scalia and Thomas, strict constructionalist and arch-conservative. Replacing Rehnquist with another conservative will have little or no affect on the many 5-4 decisions that the court has brought down in recent years. But in replacing progressives Stevens and Ginsburg and moderate O'Conner, Bush could swing the balance of the court to the right in a way that will affect decisions for years to come and put in jeopardy cases like Roe v. Wade, amongst others.

We're seeing this exact scenario played out in the Judiciary Committee as senators grill Judge Samuel Alito over his qualifications for the Supreme Court. Typically opinions fall along party lines. Republican senators think he's most qualified Supreme Court nominee in 70 years. Democratic senators think he's an ethically challenged, less than forthcoming jurist who's patently dishonest about his ultraconservative leanings and his desire to dismantle a woman's right to choose piecemeal.

The confirmation hearings started yesterday, but that was just opening statements and nothing much was said, The real fireworks started this morning with the questioning of Alito. It's early (8:19) and we've only seen 3 senators (Spector, Leahy & Hatch) question Alito but some trends are starting to emerge. One is that Alito is clearly less than comfortable being questioned on his views after 15 years on the bench when he in charge of the questioning. Two is that Hatch and the rest of the conservative Republicans are going to lob softballs at Alito while Kennedy and the Democrats are going to lob spitballs and knucklers trying to trip Alito up or get him to respond in an impolitic fashion, which could easily happen seeing Alito's unease at the questioning table. There is the fact that Alito, while more forthcoming than Roberts who was an expert evader, just seems like a liar.

Kennedy is up now. He's grilling Alito about his pledge to the Judiciary Committee to recuse himself from any case involving Vanguard, with whom he had large holdings, and his subsequent non-recusal of a case involving Vanguard. Like all the other Democratic senators, he's going to ask Alito about the balance of protecting security and civil liberties and what are the limits of executive power. They are going to ask about Roe v. Wade, which I believe, despite Alito's claim to have an open mind, will vote to overturn at the first chance he has. They are going to ask about the rights of privacy. They are going to ask about strip searching 10 year girls. They are going to ask about protecting corporate interests at the expense of individual rights. They are going to peer into everything he has said, done and written and rightly so for such an important position as the Supreme Court which is a lifetime appointment..

Unless there is some remarkable revelation or outburst, chances are Alito will be confirmed and the court will swing to the right for a quarter of a century (Alito is only 57). This is one of the direct consequences of the ascendancy of George Bush. Knowing that his fingerprints are going to be on major decisions that affect millions of Americans for years to come is less than comforting and it's why elections matter, why all citizens should pay attention to politics and why everyone who can should vote.