
Is this where we're headed (again)?
It's hard to imagine that even if the 700 billion dollar bail out passed that this country (and much of the world) would not be headed towards something of a financial armageddon. I've said this before, but despite what John McCain has said, the fundamentals of our economy are not strong.
The Debt
The US government (and by extension you and me) owes almost
10 trillion dollars. Amazingly, we're in the midst of a presidential and this simple fact never gets mentioned. We'd have to raise taxes to even start thinking about paying it off. Raising taxes has become politically unpalatable that this will never happen. The debt will never be paid off. Eventually China, Japan Saudi Arabia and all the others will stop lending us money. Already we pay about 250 billion dollars a year to service the debt. We won"t default on the debt obligations. We'll just print more money. This will deflate the dollar, force interest rates and cause massive inflation a al Argentina. What fun.
Savings Rate
American's
can't save money. The live paycheck to paycheck and if they have an emergency or want something they can't afford, they finance it with credit card debt or home equity. We now credit cards are maxxed out and home equity is non existent. Now that no one can ignore horrors of a recession, people might start to save a little which will only make the problem worse, since our economy is based on consumer spending. A tiny increase in saving, say 1-2% will decrease spending about 150-200 billion which is about 1.5-2% of GDP. That will wipe out any increase in the economy and put us into a recession alone.
Manufacturing
We don't make anything any in this country. We sell services. This includes financial services like packaging mortgages that didn't casue the problem we have now, but pushed our over the edge. China, the country that does manufacture anything won't lose any sleep over losing the US as their main market. They have a huge market at home that's almost ready to step up and buy just about everything they make.
The Dollar
The dollar will soon lose its status as the world's reserve currency. In essence, it really isn't anymore which is a large reason for the staggering increase in the price of oil. It's still priced against the dollar, while it probably should be pegged to the Euro. A weaker dollar means cheaper exports, which on one hand is good for the economy. But it also means that American assets are really cheap and our overseas creditors are going to swoop in like Japan in the 80s, buy up our properties and companies and take the profits back to the their countries.
Wall Street
Today the DOW shed more than 750 points. Estimates are that $1.1 trillion in wealth vanished. What's going to happen tomorrow? More panic selling? Hard to say, but it's possible. I'm not a psychologist, but I suspect many people are going to want to stop the bleeding, are going to liquidate mutual funds which is going to cause a massive sell off and hammer the market. Wall Street will soon be surpassed as the world's financial capital by Shanghai.
That's just the major stuff. When you add infrastructure, human capital, deregulation, banking problems, home equity, we're, what's the phrase I'm looking for? Oh, right, We're fucked.