Armstrong has the lead as the Tour moves out of the high Alps into the rolling hills, which is a good sign. But today's stage spells trouble to me. I'm going to guess that Michael Rasmussen, the man in the second place, a mere 38 seconds back, is going to attack. The reason I think that is today's rolling stage of category 2 and 3 hills is much like Stage 9 from Gerardmer to Mulhouse which Rasmussen won and launched himself into a huge lead in the King of the Mountains competition.

Interestingly, Rasmussen who rides for the second tier Rabobank team, came into this race with an eye only on the polka dot jersey. But one by one Armstong's main rivals have fallen away, leaving the Dane the only rider within a minute of the lead. As he stands now in clear second place and within spitting distance of Lance, I'd be shocked if his goals have not changed to go for the win. He's looked strong all through the mountains. He's showed the ability to break clear of Armstrong and Team Discovery when cresting mountains to accumulate points and he is someone whom everyone who is pulling for Lance to go out with win number 7 should be worried about. Just what Team Discovery needs, one more guy in the peloton to be worried about.

That said, it's Bastille Day so we're probably going to see the French, who have done little year and haven't fielded a Tour winner in 20 years (this race is fast becoming their Wimbledon), attacking on the road today. Best of luck to them and to everybody and a happy Bastille Day to all my French colleagues and racing fans.